Watershed Moments and Market Emergence: The Rise of the New Space Market

Working Papers

In this paper, we explore how an industry’s watershed moments – vivid, publically salient, emotionally resonant events – can drive the emergence of a new market. Our empirical context is the New Space market, a growing number of new, private companies developing and using spaceflight-access technologies. Read More

Breakthrough Recognition: Competing for Attention

Working Papers

We introduce to the literature on the recognition and spread of ideas the perspective that articles compete for the attention of researchers who might build upon them, in addition to the “bias against novelty” view documented in prior research. We investigate these effects by analyzing more than 5.3 million research publications from 1970 to 1999 in the life sciences. Read More

Using Machine Learning to Predict High-Impact General Technologies

Working Papers

Can machine learning techniques be used to predict high-impact, general technologies? We find that an ensemble of deep learning models that analyze both the text of patents as well as their bibliometric information can ex-ante identify such patents, accurately identifying 80 of the top 100 high generality patents in the hold-out sample. Read More

Consequences of Misspecified Mental Models: Contrasting Effects and the Role of Cognitive Fit

Published Research

Mental models, reflecting interdependencies among managerial choice variables, are not always correctly specified. Mental models can be underspecified, missing interdependencies, or overspecified, containing nonexistent interdependencies.Read More