Opportunities and Risks in Belief Distribution Elicitations

Beidi Hu, PhD Candidate at the Wharton School

Abstract: Researchers and practitioners have increasingly embraced the novel practice of eliciting the entire belief distributions, as it provides a more thorough understanding of stakeholders’ beliefs. My recent paper (co-authored with Professor Joe Simmons) suggests that constructing belief distributions can sometimes inadvertently exacerbate people’s overconfidence in their predictions. Extending our prior findings, the proposed research will examine the broader impact of belief distribution elicitations on important outcomes for managers and marketers (e.g., receptiveness to advice, and susceptibility to external anchors).