Dave Reibstein, Marketing, The Wharton School; Z. John Zhang, Marketing, The Wharton School; Cait Lamberton, Marketing, The Wharton School
Abstract: In our endeavor to grasp the driving forces behind cryptocurrency prices, we have developed the Consumer Cryptocurrency Confidence Index (c3i), derived from a set of questions asked monthly to consumers across the United States. Our analysis has uncovered several initial results and pointed to an extensive, exciting research program on consumer behavior that shapes the cryptocurrency markets. Firstly, we are rigorously validating to what extent the c3i can accurately predict changes in cryptocurrency prices as a leading indicator by exploring whether this relationship is merely correlation or potentially causal. Furthermore, we are investigating if consumer characteristics such as age, gender, and political leanings can enhance the accuracy of our index in predicting cryptocurrency prices. We are also examining if the relationship observed between c3i and cryptocurrency prices extends to broader stock market indices like the S&P 500 and other domains of blockchain markets (e.g., Non-fungible Tokens). Additionally, we are delving into the determinants of distributed trust within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, using both survey data and experiments. Finally, we are investigating the factors that either facilitate or hinder the adoption of cryptocurrencies as viable mediums of exchange and stores of value. Through these research efforts, our aim is to offer valuable insights into the intricate relationship between consumer sentiment and behavior, market dynamics, and the evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies, including insights into the broader domain of blockchain-based markets and goods. We presented these preliminary results at the recent Marketing Strategy Meets Wall Street Conference in Cologne, Germany, and they were very well received indeed, promising more collaborative research using the data we have collected.